---
title: "Build-chance model calibration"
description: "Hold-out backtest of the ERCOT completion-probability model: predicted vs. actual on resolved projects. Brier, log loss, AUC, and decile calibration."
canonical: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/calibration"
markdown: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/calibration.md"
resource_type: "research"
source_report: "August 2026"
generated_at: "2026-09-08T19:34:08.442Z"
license: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Build-chance model calibration

Hold-out backtest of the ERCOT completion-probability model: predicted vs. actual on resolved projects. Brier, log loss, AUC, and decile calibration.

## Frozen holdout

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Cutoff | 2024-05 |
| Latest evaluation report | 2026-08 |
| Evaluation window | 27 months |
| Projects | 566 |
| Commissioned | 178 |
| Dropped | 388 |
| Average predicted completion | 47.0% |
| Actual completion | 31.4% |
| AUC | 0.900 |
| Mean absolute calibration error | 16.93 pp |
| Brier score | 0.1273 |
| Log loss | 0.4509 |

Scope: Backtest covers queue entry → COD only. Pre-queue risk (land control, PPAs, environmental permitting) is not modeled.

AUC measures ranking. Calibration measures whether displayed probabilities match observed frequencies. A useful rank ordering does not make every displayed percentage precise.

Complete calibration JSON: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/calibration.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/calibration.json)

Rolling calibration history: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/calibration_history.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/calibration_history.json)

## Source, citation, and reuse

- Human-readable page: [Build-chance model calibration](https://www.ercotqueue.com/calibration)
- Markdown representation: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/calibration.md](https://www.ercotqueue.com/calibration.md)
- Source report: August 2026
- Site refresh: September 2026
- Methodology: [ERCOTQueue methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

ERCOTQueue distinguishes reported source fields from independently derived analysis. Queue capacity records development and interconnection activity; it does not establish financing, construction, or commercial operation. Build Chance is a research signal, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.