---
title: "Methodology"
description: "How ercotqueue.com builds its charts. Data sources, refresh cadence, voice discipline, and the editorial rules the chartbook follows."
canonical: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology"
markdown: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology.md"
resource_type: "research"
source_report: "August 2026"
generated_at: "2026-09-08T19:34:08.442Z"
license: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Methodology

How ercotqueue.com builds its charts. Data sources, refresh cadence, voice discipline, and the editorial rules the chartbook follows.

## Evidence hierarchy

1. Official public source fields are preserved with their report month or basis date.
2. Normalized fields make source records comparable across monthly files.
3. Derived fields and models are labeled as ERCOTQueue analysis.
4. Approximate geography, missing fields, and review candidates remain visibly qualified.

## Generation queue

The current generation dataset comes from the August 2026 ERCOT Generation Interconnection Status Report. ERCOTQueue preserves project identifiers, developer names, capacity, technology, county, zone, point of interconnection, projected COD, status text, and dated milestones when present.

A queue entry records interconnection activity. It does not prove land control, equipment reservations, financing, construction, or commercial operation.

## Funnel and Build Chance

ERCOTQueue maps reported milestones into five funnel stages: no interconnection agreement; interconnection agreement with FIS pending; interconnection agreement and FIS complete; construction; and commissioned.

Build Chance combines seven inputs: stage base rate, fuel history, developer history, stage velocity, COD slippage, FIS progress, and project capacity. A candidate recalibration map is evaluated against observed historical outcomes and applied only when it passes the project-purged validation guard. The model covers queue entry through commercial operation and excludes pre-queue risks.

| Frozen holdout measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Projects | 566 |
| Actual completion | 31.4% |
| Average predicted completion | 47.0% |
| AUC | 0.900 |
| Mean absolute calibration error | 16.93 pp |
| Brier score | 0.1273 |

Model scope caveat: Backtest covers queue entry → COD only. Pre-queue risk (land control, PPAs, environmental permitting) is not modeled.

## Time and monthly history

Historical views are reconstructed from archived monthly ERCOT reports. A change means the public file changed between observations. A project disappearing from a report does not, by itself, prove formal cancellation.

## Geography

ERCOT does not publish exact generation-project coordinates in the GIS report. ERCOTQueue uses county-level aggregation and official county boundaries. County-center symbols are visual anchors, not site locations.

## Large loads

Large-load facts use linked public source documents and retain separate status, date, and evidence fields. Current displayed basis: Queue metrics Jun 18, 2026; sources refreshed Jul 15, 2026. Public evidence does not support inferring an exact customer or site when the source does not identify one.

## Public calculation surfaces

- [Project data](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)
- [Project CSV](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv)
- [Model factor specification](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/probability_model_spec.csv)
- [Calibration](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/calibration.json)
- [Monthly changes](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/whats_new.json)
- [System-map GeoJSON](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/system-map/county_generation.geojson)
- [Complete public-data manifest](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/manifest.json)

## Source, citation, and reuse

- Human-readable page: [Methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- Markdown representation: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology.md](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology.md)
- Source report: August 2026
- Site refresh: September 2026
- Methodology: [ERCOTQueue methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

ERCOTQueue distinguishes reported source fields from independently derived analysis. Queue capacity records development and interconnection activity; it does not establish financing, construction, or commercial operation. Build Chance is a research signal, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.