---
title: "Nazareth Solar"
description: "Nazareth Solar: 203 MW Solar project in Castro County, ERCOT PANHANDLE developed by TX Nazareth Solar, LLC. Currently IA + FIS complete; build-chance 66%. Independent ERCOT queue tracking by Matt Prusak."
canonical: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/16INR0049"
markdown: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/16INR0049.md"
resource_type: "project"
source_report: "August 2026"
generated_at: "2026-09-08T19:34:08.442Z"
license: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Nazareth Solar

Nazareth Solar is an ERCOT generation interconnection record identified by INR 16INR0049.

## Current reported project fields

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| INR | 16INR0049 |
| Developer | [TX Nazareth Solar, LLC](https://www.ercotqueue.com/developer/tx-nazareth-solar-llc.md) |
| Fuel / technology | Solar / PV |
| Capacity | 203.0 MW |
| County | Castro County |
| ERCOT zone | PANHANDLE |
| Point of interconnection | tap 345kV 23914 Tule Canyon - 23912 Ogallala C2 |
| Projected commercial-operation date | 2027-08-31 |
| Reported status | SS Completed, FIS Completed, IA |
| Funnel stage | Interconnection agreement and FIS complete |

County is the public geographic precision used by ERCOTQueue. Map symbols are county-level evidence and are not exact project coordinates.

## Independently derived Build Chance

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Validation-selected Build Chance | 66% |
| P05 | 60% |
| P50 | 64% |
| P95 | 69% |

### Score factors

| Factor | Percentage-point contribution |
| --- | ---: |
| Stage base rate | +86.2 pp |
| Fuel adjustment | -0.7 pp |
| Developer-history adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Stage-velocity adjustment | -10.0 pp |
| COD-slippage adjustment | -10.0 pp |
| FIS-progress adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Capacity adjustment | 0.0 pp |

These factors are ERCOTQueue derivations. The displayed probability is not an ERCOT forecast or an official project status.

## Reported milestones

| Milestone | Date |
| --- | --- |
| screening started | 2014-06-19 |
| screening complete | 2014-07-25 |
| fis requested | 2014-07-01 |
| fis approved | 2025-07-29 |
| ia signed | 2026-03-05 |

## Observed monthly history

- First seen: 2018-12
- Last seen: 2026-08
- Appearances: 93
- Score-series basis: Monthly points use the as-of seven-factor raw model on the validation-selected raw scale because the current isotonic candidate did not pass the project-purged application guard. The final point is anchored to the published current project score. The series shows trajectory, not a previously published frozen forecast.

The 30 most recent observed changes are shown below. The public JSON contains the complete history.

| Report month | Change | Detail |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-04 | Funnel stage | IA signed, FIS pending to IA + FIS complete |
| 2026-03 | Projected COD | 2027-08-05 to 2027-08-31 (0 months) |
| 2025-08 | Projected COD | 2026-12-31 to 2027-08-05 (+8 months) |
| 2025-04 | Funnel stage | IA + FIS complete to IA signed, FIS pending |
| 2025-01 | Projected COD | 2025-12-31 to 2026-12-31 (+12 months) |
| 2024-05 | Projected COD | 2025-03-24 to 2025-12-31 (+9 months) |
| 2023-04 | Funnel stage | IA signed, FIS pending to IA + FIS complete |
| 2022-07 | Developer field | Lendlease Energy to TX Nazareth Solar, LLC |
| 2022-06 | Projected COD | 2024-12-31 to 2025-03-24 (+3 months) |
| 2022-05 | Projected COD | 2023-06-01 to 2024-12-31 (+18 months) |
| 2020-09 | Projected COD | 2022-05-31 to 2023-06-01 (+13 months) |
| 2019-12 | Projected COD | 2021-05-31 to 2022-05-31 (+12 months) |
| 2019-04 | Projected COD | 2020-05-01 to 2021-05-31 (+12 months) |
| 2018-12 | Funnel stage | First observation to IA signed, FIS pending |

Complete project-history JSON: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/16INR0049.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/16INR0049.json)

## Field provenance

- Reported fields: INR, name, developer, capacity, fuel, county, zone, point of interconnection, projected COD, status, and dated milestones.
- Derived fields: funnel stage, COD-delay indicators, Build Chance, factor contributions, and uncertainty range.
- Current project dataset: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)
- Current flat CSV: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv)

## Source, citation, and reuse

- Human-readable page: [Nazareth Solar](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/16INR0049)
- Markdown representation: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/16INR0049.md](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/16INR0049.md)
- Source report: August 2026
- Site refresh: September 2026
- Methodology: [ERCOTQueue methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
- Source data (application/json): [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)

ERCOTQueue distinguishes reported source fields from independently derived analysis. Queue capacity records development and interconnection activity; it does not establish financing, construction, or commercial operation. Build Chance is a research signal, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.