---
title: "Sbranch Solar"
description: "Sbranch Solar: 234 MW Solar project in Wharton County, ERCOT SOUTH developed by Bernard Creek Solar, LLC. Currently Commissioned; build-chance 100%. Independent ERCOT queue tracking by Matt Prusak."
canonical: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/22INR0205"
markdown: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/22INR0205.md"
resource_type: "project"
source_report: "August 2026"
generated_at: "2026-09-08T19:34:08.442Z"
license: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Sbranch Solar

Sbranch Solar is an ERCOT generation interconnection record identified by INR 22INR0205.

## Current reported project fields

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| INR | 22INR0205 |
| Developer | [Bernard Creek Solar, LLC](https://www.ercotqueue.com/developer/bernard-creek-solar-llc.md) |
| Fuel / technology | Solar / PV |
| Capacity | 233.5 MW |
| County | Wharton County |
| ERCOT zone | SOUTH |
| Point of interconnection | Tap 138kV 44190 East Bernard - 44130 Caney |
| Projected commercial-operation date | 2026-10-31 |
| Reported status | SS Completed, FIS Completed, IA |
| Funnel stage | Commissioned |

County is the public geographic precision used by ERCOTQueue. Map symbols are county-level evidence and are not exact project coordinates.

## Independently derived Build Chance

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Validation-selected Build Chance | 100% |
| P05 | 100% |
| P50 | 100% |
| P95 | 100% |

### Score factors

| Factor | Percentage-point contribution |
| --- | ---: |
| Stage base rate | +100.0 pp |
| Fuel adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Developer-history adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Stage-velocity adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| COD-slippage adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| FIS-progress adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Capacity adjustment | 0.0 pp |

These factors are ERCOTQueue derivations. The displayed probability is not an ERCOT forecast or an official project status.

## Reported milestones

| Milestone | Date |
| --- | --- |
| screening started | 2019-01-03 |
| screening complete | 2019-03-13 |
| fis requested | 2019-03-29 |
| fis approved | 2021-07-29 |
| ia signed | 2020-07-26 |
| approved energization | 2022-09-12 |
| approved sync | 2023-11-21 |

## Observed monthly history

- First seen: 2019-04
- Last seen: 2026-08
- Appearances: 89
- Score-series basis: Monthly points use the as-of seven-factor raw model on the validation-selected raw scale because the current isotonic candidate did not pass the project-purged application guard. The final point is anchored to the published current project score. The series shows trajectory, not a previously published frozen forecast.

The 30 most recent observed changes are shown below. The public JSON contains the complete history.

| Report month | Change | Detail |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-08 | Projected COD | 2026-07-31 to 2026-10-31 (+3 months) |
| 2026-06 | Projected COD | 2026-04-30 to 2026-07-31 (+3 months) |
| 2026-03 | Projected COD | 2026-03-31 to 2026-04-30 (+1 month) |
| 2025-12 | Projected COD | 2025-12-31 to 2026-03-31 (+3 months) |
| 2025-11 | Projected COD | 2025-08-22 to 2025-12-31 (+4 months) |
| 2025-08 | Projected COD | 2025-08-15 to 2025-08-22 (0 months) |
| 2025-07 | Projected COD | 2025-06-30 to 2025-08-15 (+2 months) |
| 2025-06 | Projected COD | 2025-05-30 to 2025-06-30 (+1 month) |
| 2025-05 | Projected COD | 2025-04-30 to 2025-05-30 (+1 month) |
| 2025-03 | Projected COD | 2025-03-30 to 2025-04-30 (+1 month) |
| 2025-02 | Projected COD | 2025-01-30 to 2025-03-30 (+2 months) |
| 2025-01 | Projected COD | 2024-10-15 to 2025-01-30 (+3 months) |
| 2024-10 | Projected COD | 2024-09-15 to 2024-10-15 (+1 month) |
| 2024-08 | Projected COD | 2024-04-15 to 2024-09-15 (+5 months) |
| 2024-03 | Projected COD | 2024-02-15 to 2024-04-15 (+2 months) |
| 2024-01 | Projected COD | 2023-12-31 to 2024-02-15 (+2 months) |
| 2023-11 | Projected COD | 2024-01-31 to 2023-12-31 (-1 month) |
| 2023-11 | Funnel stage | IA + FIS complete to Commissioned |
| 2023-07 | Developer field | CG Wharton County LLC to Bernard Creek Solar, LLC |
| 2023-02 | Projected COD | 2023-04-14 to 2024-01-31 (+9 months) |
| 2023-01 | Projected COD | 2023-03-03 to 2023-04-14 (+1 month) |
| 2022-04 | Projected COD | 2022-07-01 to 2023-03-03 (+8 months) |
| 2021-09 | Projected COD | 2022-04-01 to 2022-07-01 (+3 months) |
| 2021-07 | Funnel stage | IA signed, FIS pending to IA + FIS complete |
| 2020-12 | Funnel stage | IA + FIS complete to IA signed, FIS pending |
| 2020-08 | Projected COD | 2021-06-01 to 2022-04-01 (+10 months) |
| 2020-08 | Funnel stage | No IA to IA + FIS complete |
| 2019-04 | Funnel stage | First observation to No IA |

Complete project-history JSON: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/22INR0205.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/22INR0205.json)

## Field provenance

- Reported fields: INR, name, developer, capacity, fuel, county, zone, point of interconnection, projected COD, status, and dated milestones.
- Derived fields: funnel stage, COD-delay indicators, Build Chance, factor contributions, and uncertainty range.
- Current project dataset: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)
- Current flat CSV: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv)

## Source, citation, and reuse

- Human-readable page: [Sbranch Solar](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/22INR0205)
- Markdown representation: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/22INR0205.md](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/22INR0205.md)
- Source report: August 2026
- Site refresh: September 2026
- Methodology: [ERCOTQueue methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
- Source data (application/json): [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)

ERCOTQueue distinguishes reported source fields from independently derived analysis. Queue capacity records development and interconnection activity; it does not establish financing, construction, or commercial operation. Build Chance is a research signal, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.