---
title: "Elm Flats Solar SLF"
description: "Elm Flats Solar SLF: 126 MW Solar project in Navarro County, ERCOT NORTH developed by Orca Falls Solar, LLC. Currently IA, FIS pending; build-chance 80%. Independent ERCOT queue tracking by Matt Prusak."
canonical: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/26INR0130"
markdown: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/26INR0130.md"
resource_type: "project"
source_report: "July 2026"
generated_at: "2026-08-07T17:27:53.695Z"
license: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Elm Flats Solar SLF

Elm Flats Solar SLF is an ERCOT generation interconnection record identified by INR 26INR0130.

## Current reported project fields

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| INR | 26INR0130 |
| Developer | [Orca Falls Solar, LLC](https://www.ercotqueue.com/developer/orca-falls-solar-llc.md) |
| Fuel / technology | Solar / PV |
| Capacity | 125.8 MW |
| County | Navarro County |
| ERCOT zone | NORTH |
| Point of interconnection | Tap 138kV 3472 BRIAR_CRK_8 – 3467 POWELL1_8 |
| Projected commercial-operation date | 2027-09-30 |
| Reported status | SS Completed, FIS Started, IA |
| Funnel stage | Interconnection agreement; FIS pending |

County is the public geographic precision used by ERCOTQueue. Map symbols are county-level evidence and are not exact project coordinates.

## Independently derived Build Chance

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Validation-selected Build Chance | 80% |
| P05 | 74% |
| P50 | 79% |
| P95 | 83% |

### Score factors

| Factor | Percentage-point contribution |
| --- | ---: |
| Stage base rate | +81.1 pp |
| Fuel adjustment | -0.6 pp |
| Developer-history adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Stage-velocity adjustment | +5.0 pp |
| COD-slippage adjustment | -5.0 pp |
| FIS-progress adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Capacity adjustment | -0.5 pp |

These factors are ERCOTQueue derivations. The displayed probability is not an ERCOT forecast or an official project status.

## Reported milestones

| Milestone | Date |
| --- | --- |
| screening started | 2024-07-30 |
| screening complete | 2023-09-01 |
| fis requested | 2023-06-13 |
| ia signed | 2025-11-21 |

## Observed monthly history

- First seen: 2023-06
- Last seen: 2026-07
- Appearances: 38
- Score-series basis: Monthly points use the as-of seven-factor raw model on the validation-selected raw scale because the current isotonic candidate did not pass the project-purged application guard. The final point is anchored to the published current project score. The series shows trajectory, not a previously published frozen forecast.

The 30 most recent observed changes are shown below. The public JSON contains the complete history.

| Report month | Change | Detail |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-06 | Funnel stage | No IA to IA signed, FIS pending |
| 2025-08 | Projected COD | 2026-12-01 to 2027-09-30 (+9 months) |
| 2025-08 | Developer field | Elm Flats Solar, LLC to Orca Falls Solar, LLC |
| 2024-10 | Projected COD | 2026-07-01 to 2026-12-01 (+5 months) |
| 2023-07 | Projected COD | 2026-01-31 to 2026-07-01 (+6 months) |
| 2023-06 | Funnel stage | First observation to No IA |

Complete project-history JSON: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/26INR0130.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/26INR0130.json)

## Field provenance

- Reported fields: INR, name, developer, capacity, fuel, county, zone, point of interconnection, projected COD, status, and dated milestones.
- Derived fields: funnel stage, COD-delay indicators, Build Chance, factor contributions, and uncertainty range.
- Current project dataset: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)
- Current flat CSV: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv)

## Source, citation, and reuse

- Human-readable page: [Elm Flats Solar SLF](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/26INR0130)
- Markdown representation: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/26INR0130.md](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/26INR0130.md)
- Source report: July 2026
- Site refresh: August 2026
- Methodology: [ERCOTQueue methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
- Source data (application/json): [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)

ERCOTQueue distinguishes reported source fields from independently derived analysis. Queue capacity records development and interconnection activity; it does not establish financing, construction, or commercial operation. Build Chance is a research signal, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.