---
title: "Willow Oak Gas"
description: "Willow Oak Gas: 1350 MW Gas project in Jefferson County, ERCOT HOUSTON developed by Willow Oak Energy LLC. Currently No IA; build-chance 10%. Independent ERCOT queue tracking by Matt Prusak."
canonical: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/30INR0020"
markdown: "https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/30INR0020.md"
resource_type: "project"
source_report: "July 2026"
generated_at: "2026-08-07T17:27:53.695Z"
license: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
---

# Willow Oak Gas

Willow Oak Gas is an ERCOT generation interconnection record identified by INR 30INR0020.

## Current reported project fields

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| INR | 30INR0020 |
| Developer | [Willow Oak Energy LLC](https://www.ercotqueue.com/developer/willow-oak-energy-llc.md) |
| Fuel / technology | Gas / CC |
| Capacity | 1,350.0 MW |
| County | Jefferson County |
| ERCOT zone | HOUSTON |
| Point of interconnection | 40850 Jordan |
| Projected commercial-operation date | 2030-01-01 |
| Reported status | SS Completed, FIS Started, No IA |
| Funnel stage | No interconnection agreement |

County is the public geographic precision used by ERCOTQueue. Map symbols are county-level evidence and are not exact project coordinates.

## Independently derived Build Chance

| Measure | Value |
| --- | ---: |
| Validation-selected Build Chance | 10% |
| P05 | 3% |
| P50 | 9% |
| P95 | 16% |

### Score factors

| Factor | Percentage-point contribution |
| --- | ---: |
| Stage base rate | +18.6 pp |
| Fuel adjustment | +5.2 pp |
| Developer-history adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| Stage-velocity adjustment | -10.0 pp |
| COD-slippage adjustment | 0.0 pp |
| FIS-progress adjustment | -4.6 pp |
| Capacity adjustment | +0.9 pp |

These factors are ERCOTQueue derivations. The displayed probability is not an ERCOT forecast or an official project status.

## Reported milestones

| Milestone | Date |
| --- | --- |
| screening started | 2025-09-09 |
| screening complete | 2025-12-11 |
| fis requested | 2026-06-03 |

## Observed monthly history

- First seen: 2026-06
- Last seen: 2026-07
- Appearances: 2
- Score-series basis: Monthly points use the as-of seven-factor raw model on the validation-selected raw scale because the current isotonic candidate did not pass the project-purged application guard. The final point is anchored to the published current project score. The series shows trajectory, not a previously published frozen forecast.

The 30 most recent observed changes are shown below. The public JSON contains the complete history.

| Report month | Change | Detail |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-06 | Funnel stage | First observation to No IA |

Complete project-history JSON: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/30INR0020.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/project_history/30INR0020.json)

## Field provenance

- Reported fields: INR, name, developer, capacity, fuel, county, zone, point of interconnection, projected COD, status, and dated milestones.
- Derived fields: funnel stage, COD-delay indicators, Build Chance, factor contributions, and uncertainty range.
- Current project dataset: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)
- Current flat CSV: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.csv)

## Source, citation, and reuse

- Human-readable page: [Willow Oak Gas](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/30INR0020)
- Markdown representation: [https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/30INR0020.md](https://www.ercotqueue.com/project/30INR0020.md)
- Source report: July 2026
- Site refresh: August 2026
- Methodology: [ERCOTQueue methodology](https://www.ercotqueue.com/methodology)
- License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
- Source data (application/json): [https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json](https://www.ercotqueue.com/data/projects.json)

ERCOTQueue distinguishes reported source fields from independently derived analysis. Queue capacity records development and interconnection activity; it does not establish financing, construction, or commercial operation. Build Chance is a research signal, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.